Rice is produced on a global scale, but the crop is concentrated in a relatively small group of countries and regions. USDA forecasts put 2025/26 milled-rice production at 541.458 million metric tons, while consumption and residual use reached 538.560 million metric tons. These figures are forecasts, and the underlying tables use local marketing years for production, consumption, and stocks.
In this article
- Global production leaders
- Consumption and rice stocks
- Trade and regional flows
- U.S. acreage, harvests, and yields
- Prices and the U.S. supply outlook
- Exports, imports, and product forms
Global production leaders
The largest rice-producing countries in the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s August 2025 outlook are concentrated in Asia. India was forecast to produce 151,000 thousand metric tons of milled rice in 2025/26, ahead of China at 146,000 thousand metric tons. The global total was forecast at 541,458 thousand metric tons.
| Producer | 2025/26 milled rice forecast |
|---|---|
| India | 151,000 thousand metric tons |
| China | 146,000 thousand metric tons |
| Bangladesh | 37,500 thousand metric tons |
| Indonesia | 33,600 thousand metric tons |
| Vietnam | 26,300 thousand metric tons |
| Thailand | 20,400 thousand metric tons |
| Philippines | 12,300 thousand metric tons |
| Pakistan | 9,800 thousand metric tons |
| Cambodia | 8,100 thousand metric tons |
| United States | 6,619 thousand metric tons |
Source: Global Market Analysis: World Rice Production, Consumption, and Stocks (August 2025). All values in this section are 2025/26 forecasts for the period specified by USDA, not completed-year observations.
South Asia alone was forecast to produce 205,670 thousand metric tons in 2025/26. The United States was a much smaller producer by volume, with the August outlook placing U.S. output at 6.619 million tons on a milled basis. A separate December 2025 USDA ERS outlook projected global 2025/26 production at 540.4 million tons on a milled basis, showing that forecast totals can differ between outlook editions and publication dates.
Consumption and rice stocks
China and India were also the two largest individual consumption markets in the supplied USDA outlook. China’s rice consumption and residual use was forecast at 146,700 thousand metric tons in 2025/26, while India’s was forecast at 126,500 thousand metric tons. Together, those two country estimates represented the largest reported national uses in the figures listed here.
Global consumption and residual use was forecast at 538,560 thousand metric tons in 2025/26. Global ending stocks were forecast at 186,701 thousand metric tons. Regional stock estimates included 107,249 thousand metric tons in East Asia, 49,332 thousand metric tons in South Asia, and 16,858 thousand metric tons in Southeast Asia.
The longer comparison in the August 2025 USDA FAS table places global production at 523.840 million metric tons in 2023/24, compared with a 541.458-million-ton forecast for 2025/26. Global ending stocks were 179.298 million metric tons in 2023/24 and were forecast at 186.701 million metric tons in 2025/26. The earlier figure is identified in the table as actual/estimate, while the later figure is a forecast.
These numbers describe stocks at the end of the relevant marketing year. They should not be read as a physical inventory measured on one universal calendar date, because USDA’s tables use local marketing years for production, consumption, and stocks.
Trade and regional flows
Rice trade is smaller than total production, but its regional distribution matters for food supply and pantry markets. World rice imports were forecast at 59,174 thousand metric tons for trade year 2026 in the August 2025 USDA FAS table. The December 2025 USDA ERS outlook separately forecast world exports at 62.8 million metric tons for calendar year 2026. Those figures use different trade-year conventions and outlook editions, so they are not interchangeable measurements.
For 2025/26, Sub-Saharan Africa’s rice imports were forecast at 19,005 thousand metric tons, Southeast Asia’s at 12,895 thousand metric tons, and the Middle East’s at 8,885 thousand metric tons. North America’s imports were forecast at 3,010 thousand metric tons. On the production side, Sub-Saharan Africa was forecast at 24,000 thousand metric tons, North America at 6,796 thousand metric tons, and South Asia at 205,670 thousand metric tons.
The December 2025 outlook projected total global rice supplies at a record 730.7 million metric tons in 2025/26. “Supplies” is a broader measure than production alone, so it should not be compared directly with the 541.458-million-ton production forecast as though the two described the same component of the balance sheet.
U.S. acreage, harvests, and yields
The USDA ERS U.S. rice acreage, production, and yield series reports that American farmers planted 2,910 thousand acres of rice in the 2024 crop year and harvested 2,867 thousand acres. U.S. all-rice production was 222,133 thousand hundredweight, and average yield was 7,748 pounds per harvested acre. The crop year is August–July in the supplied series.
Arkansas was the largest listed state by harvested area and output in 2024. It harvested 1,432 thousand rice acres and produced 109,407 thousand hundredweight. California harvested 464 thousand acres and produced 39,588 thousand hundredweight, while Louisiana harvested 459 thousand acres and produced 30,809 thousand hundredweight.
| State | Harvested acres (thousand) | Production (thousand cwt) | Yield detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | 1,432 | 109,407 | — |
| California | 464 | 39,588 | — |
| Louisiana | 459 | 30,809 | — |
| Missouri | 214 | 18,040 | — |
| Mississippi | 154 | 11,613 | — |
| Texas | 144 | 12,676 | 8,800 lb/acre |
Missouri harvested 214 thousand acres and produced 18,040 thousand hundredweight. Mississippi harvested 154 thousand acres and produced 11,613 thousand hundredweight. Texas harvested 144 thousand acres and produced 12,676 thousand hundredweight. Among the listed states, Texas had the highest 2024 all-rice yield at 8,800 pounds per harvested acre.
Source: U.S. rice acreage, production, and yield. The source reports acreage in thousand acres, production in thousand hundredweight, and yield in pounds per harvested acre.
Prices and the U.S. supply outlook
The December 2025 USDA ERS Rice Outlook forecast the U.S. all-rice season-average farm price at $11.60 per hundredweight for 2025/26. That forecast was 24 percent below the prior year. The medium- and short-grain season-average farm price was forecast at $15.80 per hundredweight for the same marketing year.
The August 2025 USDA FAS outlook forecast U.S. all-rice production at 6.619 million tons on a milled basis in 2025/26 and U.S. ending stocks at 1.418 million tons on a milled basis. These are supply-balance forecasts rather than 2026 observations. The December 2025 ERS outlook also described India’s 2025/26 rice production as a tenth consecutive record high.
For readers comparing the U.S. with the global market, the same August FAS forecast placed U.S. production at 6,619 thousand metric tons and world production at 541,458 thousand metric tons. The units are both milled-basis metric tons in that table, while the 2024 U.S. crop-year production figures above use thousand hundredweight.
Exports, imports, and product forms
The USDA ERS Rice - Rice Sector at a Glance says the United States accounted for less than 2 percent of global rice production while shipping almost 5 percent of global exports. The same current ERS summary says about 40–45 percent of the U.S. rice crop was exported each year.
Product form is part of the trade picture. Milled rice, including brown and parboiled rice, represented 52–56 percent of U.S. rice exports in the ERS sector summary. Broken-kernel rice typically represented almost 2 percent of U.S. rice export volume. These ranges preserve the wording of the current ERS summary and are not presented as a single-year 2026 measurement.
U.S. import dependence has also changed over time. ERS reports that U.S. rice imports have tripled since 2001/02. Since 2019/20, imports averaged more than 14 percent of total supply, compared with 10 percent during 2014/15–2018/19. The summary also reports that Australia shipped about 38,600 tons of medium- and short-grain milled rice to the United States in 2022/23.
India’s rice exports peaked at 22.1 million tons in 2022. In the current ERS summary, India, Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, the United States, China, Burma, and Cambodia together accounted for 90 percent of global rice trade. That statement describes the source’s published sector summary rather than a newly calculated 2026 share.
The figures show why rice statistics need careful labels: production can be reported on a milled basis, U.S. crop output can be reported in hundredweight, imports may follow trade years, and stock estimates may follow local marketing years. Keeping the geography, measurement period, unit, and forecast status attached to each number makes comparisons more meaningful for growers, buyers, and anyone planning a long-term pantry.